Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10620/18072
Longitudinal Study: HILDA
Title: The Importance of Economic Expectations for Retirement Entry
Authors: Haisken-DeNew, John 
Broadway, Barbara 
Haisken-DeNew, J
Broadway, B 
Institution: The University of Melbourne
Publication Date: Dec-2014
Pages: 43
Keywords: Pensions
Expectations
Retirement
Abstract: We estimate hazard rates of retirement entry as a function of the option value of work. The individuals’ expectations about the future economy are incorporated in the option value of work, through which they can impact on the timing of retirement entry. In a scenario where individuals expect a strong upturn, the annual hazard rate of retirement entry (average 8.4%) is reduced by 6.0% or half a percentage point compared to a scenario where they expect a downturn. Had individuals been able to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis, the mere expectation of this downturn would have increased retirement entries by 8.7%.
URL: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/working-papers/search/result?paper=2156519
ISBN: ISSN 1328-4991 (Print); ISSN 1447-5863 (Online); ISBN 978-0-7340-4368-9
Keywords: Ageing -- Retirement; Employment -- Exit from employment (Retirement/Redundancy); Life Events -- Moving into retirement
Research collection: Reports and technical papers
Appears in Collections:Reports

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