Are First Home Buyer Loans More Risky?

Abstract

Despite the rate of home ownership in Australia drifting down over recent decades, 2020 saw a large increase in first home purchases. Given the high level of housing prices and household indebtedness, this raises the question of whether first home buyer (FHB) loans contribute disproportionately to financial stability and macroeconomic risks. FHBs appear to be riskier than other owner-occupiers, at least during the first five years of the loan. They have higher loan-to-valuation ratios and lower liquidity buffers. While this might suggest FHBs would be more vulnerable than other borrowers during a negative income or housing price shock, recent experience indicates that FHBs have been no more likely to report financial stress or be in arrears. One potential explanation is that FHBs have historically experienced better labour market outcomes than other borrowers.