Predictors of numeracy performance in national testing programs: Insights from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

Abstract

This article is based on an exploratory study that examines factors which predict children's performance on the numeracy component of the Australian National Assessment Program—Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). Utilizing an ecological theoretical model, this study examines child, home and school variables which may enable or constrain NAPLAN numeracy performance. Data are presented from a nationally-representative sample of 2450 children participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Twenty-four children, home and school variables are tested as predictors of performance on the Year 3 NAPLAN numeracy assessment. The analysis includes an investigation of bivariate relationships between the outcome variable and each of the predictor variables. Following this a series of linear regression models are used to analyse the relation between child, home and school-related variables and NAPLAN numeracy performance. The results support the ecological model and point to the importance of a supportive home–school relationship on children's numeracy performance.