In this paper we test a ‘proof of concept’ to remedy the lack of timely data on Indigenous labour market outcomes. We utilize Centrelink administrative data and the HILDA survey data to estimate a forecasting equation of the employment to population ratio of Indigenous Australians. In doing so we examine the probabilities of Income Support Recipients and the general population transiting from one labour market state to another. We conclude the paper by discussing the experimental time-series estimates of employment to population ratio of Indigenous Australians derived from our forecasting equation.