This preliminary study of declining fertility rates, based on the first wave of data
from HILDA, highlights important links between fertility, relationships and work
opportunities for both men and women.
This paper indicates that, overall, expectations of having children appear to be in
decline for both men and women. However, individual fertility expectations and
outcomes vary and the data indicate that the pathways to low fertility are different
for men and women. Among women, higher education, income and occupation
status is associated with lower fertility, while among men the reverse seems to be
true. Although the associations are not as clear or strong as they are among
women, among younger men, lower education and employment opportunities are
more likely to be linked to lower fertility expectations. In addition, younger men
overall tend to expect to have fewer children than younger women and are more
likely to expect to remain childless. These findings highlight the neglected role
of men in understanding fertility decline. They also raise questions about the
impact of individual and household income, as well as labour market changes on
fertility expectations.